In 2023, almost three-quarters of Guatemala’s electricity consumption came from low-carbon sources. Hydropower supplied about 41%, while biofuels accounted for roughly 25%. Wind and geothermal each contributed around 2.4%, and solar supplied just under 2%. Fossil fuels provided about a quarter of electricity consumption, including 17% from coal, while net imports accounted for around 3%. Guatemala therefore has a strong clean-electricity foundation, but expanding low-carbon generation could further reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and their climate and air-pollution impacts.

Is Electricity Growing in Guatemala?

The latest figures show Guatemala falling short of its previous electricity-consumption record rather than reaching new heights. Electricity consumption in 2023 was 769 kWh per person, down 112 kWh—or about 13%—from the 2021 record of 881 kWh. Low-carbon electricity generation also slipped to 553 kWh per person, about 14% below its 2021 peak of 646 kWh. These comparisons do not establish whether consumption declined every intervening year, but they show a concerning retreat from earlier highs. Restoring growth in clean electricity is important for supporting electrification, economic development, and future demand, including from AI.

Suggestions

Guatemala can increase low-carbon electricity generation by prioritizing solar expansion, developing suitable wind projects, and considering nuclear power as a source of dependable clean electricity. Nearby El Salvador offers a particularly relevant solar example, generating 17% of its electricity from solar; Chile achieves 24%, and the US state of Nevada reaches 35%. For wind, Guatemala could learn from Costa Rica, where wind supplies 13% of electricity, and Uruguay, where it supplies about a third. Nuclear experience in places such as France, which generates about two-thirds of its electricity from nuclear, and the United Arab Emirates, at 20%, provides useful lessons for evaluating a Guatemalan nuclear program. Alongside new generation, investment in grids, storage, and technical expertise would help translate these opportunities into growing electricity supplies.

History

Guatemala’s low-carbon electricity history shows substantial growth punctuated by hydropower setbacks. Hydropower generation increased by 0.8 TWh in 1986 and 0.4 TWh in 1999. During the 2000s, it added 0.4 TWh in each of 2004, 2005, and 2006, followed by 0.6 TWh in 2008, before falling 0.7 TWh in 2009. In the 2010s, hydropower rebounded by 0.9 TWh in 2010, declined by 1 TWh in 2015, and surged by 1.8 TWh in 2017, before declines totaling 1.4 TWh across 2018–2019; biofuel generation increased by 0.4 TWh in both 2010 and 2013. The early 2020s brought hydropower gains of 1.3 TWh in 2020, 0.9 TWh in 2021, and 0.4 TWh in 2022, alongside a 1.1 TWh biofuel increase in 2021 and a 0.4 TWh decline in 2022. Hydropower then fell sharply by 1.4 TWh in 2023, underscoring the importance of expanding and diversifying clean electricity generation, especially through solar and consideration of nuclear.

Electricity Imports and Exports

Balance of Trade